Posted: June 13, 2025
USDJPY appears to have completed a complex wave iv correction via a contracting triangle formation. With price now breaking below the triangle’s lower boundary, the focus shifts to a potential wave v decline.
Wave (iv) triangle likely complete with rejection from 0.618–0.764 zone.
Wave (v) downside may now be active toward 142.60 and lower.
🧩 Elliott Wave Breakdown
- Wave (iv) unfolded as a triangle (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e) with diminishing momentum into the 0.618–0.764 fib retracement zone.
- A sharp rejection from this area supports the view that wave (v) may now be underway.
- Price is pressing below 144.00, and further confirmation of breakdown would open the door toward the 0.236 extension and beyond.
⚠️ Levels to Watch
- Key resistance: 145.00 (triangle apex and fib zone)
- Support targets:
- 142.60 (0.236 fib)
- Below 141.00 in full wave (v) extension
- Triangle failure = strong bearish confirmation.
📊 Outlook
- Bias: Bearish continuation into wave (v)
- Invalidation: Sustained move back above 145.20 would question the triangle’s completion